energyandenvironment

Climate Change

Poisonous gases are filling atmosphere
Creating havoc in ozone layer
If clean air becomes thinner and thinner
Climate change will be here for forever

Green forests are rapidly vanishing
Brown deserts are quickly expanding
If sand storms get stronger and stronger
Climate change will be here for forever

Land is being covered with rotten waste
Water is filling with harmful chemical paste
If cesspools continue to spread everywhere
Climate change will be here for forever

Polar glaciers are melting
Ice cap balance is tilting
If rising sea levels start crossing over
Climate change will be here for forever

Mercury is rising
Mother earth is burning
If we still continue to ignore
Climate change will here for forever

Deepak Waikar

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Oil Summit: What could be the outcome?

Oil prices per barrel in futures commodity, some labeled it speculative,
market are trying to break US$140 barrier for past few weeks with the
projections and warnings of US$150 by July 2008 and US$200 within months
rather than in years. Amid protests and violent demonstrations in many
countries against high oil prices and feeling political pressure, Saudi Arabia
has called for Summit to discuss Oil Crisis on 22nd of June 2008. Oil
producers, major consuming nations and institutional investors have been
invited for the Summit. So, it will not be an exaggeration to state that world is
anxiously waiting for the outcome of that summit and the impact it will have on
the oil prices. Four possible scenarios are:

Scenario-A: Status quo is maintained for the time being for inevitable next
round in future. Oil prices continue to stay high.

Scenario-B: Consumer nations make their strong case and producers agree
to raise limited supply with advice to consuming nations about
consequences and warn them to do their needful for the future. Oil prices
might show temporary marginal retreat for the short period and then continue
its upward march.

Scenario-C: Producer and consumer nations play hard bargaining ball
tactics. Both sides paint worst case scenarios to suit their cause. More
threats are exchanged. With warning of dire consequences, negotiations
break down. Oil prices soar to the new heights.

Scenario-D: Producer and consumer nations understanding the gravity of the
current energy crisis provide strong support and willingness for negotiable
mutually beneficial outcome from the summit. Debate on possible root
causes of high energy prices and how they can be addressed in collaborative
way. Short term measures to pacify distressed consumers are announced.

According to June 15, 2008 Associated Press Reports “The G8 -- Britain,
Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia and the United States --
urged oil producing countries to hike production and to invest money to
ensure they can pump out enough supply in the future. They have also asked
the International Monetary Fund to lead a probe into the recent spike in crude
oil prices, amid signs of discord about whether action should be taken to
curb investment flows into commodity markets.”

Scenario-D, at least on paper, looks more promising and attractive compared
to others in medium to long term. Scenario-C looks very scary and to avoid
that, Scenario-B may become a compromise candidate providing partial
political victories for both groups to play their audiences. If the outcome is
status quo, i.e. Scenario-A, questions will be raised as to why there was a
need to hold the summit. However, an argument could be made that it is
much better to have face to face talks on the issues rather than merely
releasing press statements and giving speeches to placate domestic
opposition and audience.

Surprisingly better or painfully worst other scenarios not listed above are very
much possible.

As such holding of such Summit is a step looking forward for resolving
energy crisis. It is too much to expect from such one-off Summit to address
and solve various complex challenges and issues of energy crisis. Providing
mechanism for regular interaction and proactive measures including punitive
will definitely contribute to the progress of resolving energy crisis for now and
for the future.

Stakes are very high and failure of this summit means we will have to
continue to endure high oil prices for the present and in the future unless
majority of us all over the world are willing to make radical changes to our
lifestyles.

Deepak Waikar

P.S.: You are most welcome to share this article with your friends, relatives,
colleagues. Please keep original content, composer’s name and P.S.
unchanged.

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